[mdk-re] [JT][FLAME][NEWS] Linux is becoming the age....

[Romul]

MS Exec: Linux Is Going Down
by Michelle Delio

2:00 a.m. Jan. 31, 2001 PST
   
[ ]

Microsoft thinks Linux is doomed, and predicts that many Linux businesses 
will falter and fail before the end of the year.

These are three key Linux trends to watch for in 2001: a static growth rate, 
lessening mainstream interest in the open source operating system, and a 
sharp decline in Linux-based companies' stock value, said Doug Miller, 
Microsoft's group product manager for competitive strategies.
"There really isn't much value in free," said Miller, who also contends that 
the latest release of the Linux kernel, 2.4, doesn't have the features 
required for widespread business use.

"And the recent security problems with Linux, coupled with the lack of key 
enterprise elements in the new kernel, really call into question whether 
Linux should be used at all," Miller added.

Lately, Microsoft has vacillated between dismissing Linux entirely and seeing 
it as a vast and looming threat on the competitive landscape.

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, in a presentation given to Morgan Stanley Dean 
Witter earlier this month, said, "I think you have to rate competitors that 
threaten your core higher than you rate competitors where you're trying to 
take from them. So in some senses (that) puts the Linux phenomenon and the 
Unix phenomenon at the top of the list."

"That really is Job 1 for us, because that's the threat to the Windows 
business. That's the threat through that to the Office business. So I'd put 
the Linux phenomenon really as threat No. 1."

Laurent Meynier, chief executive officer of Olliance -- an open source 
consultancy firm -- noted that Microsoft may be trying to get a grasp on 
Linux as Microsoft shifts to a more net-centric business model where it will 
have to compete with Linux in a space where Linux has gained dominance.

"They are very focused on their Internet-based plans right now, and perhaps 
word of the wide range of solid solutions that will be shown at this week's 
LinuxWorld show has also raised some concern that Linux is finally, really 
and rapidly coming of age."

But Meynier says that Linux isn't the answer for every need. He believes that 
Linux is particularly well suited for use in handheld devices and Internet 
servers.

"But you probably wouldn't want to run Linux on a laptop, unless the 
manufacturer supports Linux; otherwise, it's a real chore to find and install 
the right hardware drivers. And there is a lack of Linux applications for 
companies that use knowledge management systems. Linux also lacks some key 
features that you'd want for a data center such as hot swappable CPUs and 
memory."

"Linux wasn't originally built with these purposes in mind, so the evolution 
of the code will take longer," Meynier said.

Microsoft's Miller predicted that the same shutdowns that have plagued 
dot-coms will soon be happening to firms that have focused their business on 
Linux.

"Free does not sustain a business," Miller said. "Development costs money, QA 
(quality assurance) costs money, support costs money. We have yet to see a 
business model in the Linux world that has any chance of long-term success."

But in open source development, "free" does not mean "of low or no value" or 
even "no cost," said Olliance's Meynier.

"In this case, 'free' equals more customer and developer control, better 
influence over software quality, and the ability to create software that 
meets specific user needs," he said.

Meynier pointed to IBM as an example of a successful business model that 
leverages open source and said that the "value-added embedded work" by Red 
Hat is another extremely potent business model.

Matt Porter, CEO of LinuxGruven, a Linux support company, also disputed 
Miller's claims that "free" equals bad business.

"Yes, development and QA cost significant amounts of money," Porter said. 
"And Microsoft is an expert at spending money for developing products. That's 
the basis of their software lifecycle model. In the open-source realm, the 
tables have turned."

Miller also said that Microsoft believes that "in the rush to get on the 
enterprise bandwagon," the new Linux kernel lacks some of the key elements 
required for enterprise use.

"Based on the warnings from the developers and confusing messages from the 
distributors, it is clear the long-heralded 2.4 Linux kernel is a long way 
from being ready for business use," said Miller. "The kernel is just the 
beginning, still raw technology."

But some Linux developers say that the newly released kernel was just meant 
to be a beginning, and invited Miller to this week's LinuxWorld show in New 
York, which they say will be a showcase for business solutions.

 Microsoft's Miller also took a shot at one of Linux's strongholds: servers. 
Miller claimed that recently released numbers from IDC System Software 
Research show that "Linux growth in server OS share has been flat for two 
quarters, and Unix and Novell continue to fall.

"Meanwhile, Microsoft continues to grow at a faster pace than the rest of the 
industry and faster than any other server OS."

IDC manager Al Gillen would not confirm Miller's analysis.

"We're just finalizing our report for Linux right now, and haven't released 
those numbers to the press or the public so I can't comment on specifics. But 
I can tell you that according to our preliminary forecast, Linux is moving 
along nicely. It is certainly not fading away," Gillen said.

Miller asserted that the "industry vision" centers around Web-based services, 
which allow software and data to be delivered over networks instead of having 
to be installed or stored on user's computers.

And "Microsoft is leading the charge with .Net," said Miller. "Linux is not 
leading anything, it is simply providing a 'free' operating system."

Miller also believes that Linux has hidden costs, something he believes is 
particularly true in the embedded device market, where developers need to get 
their products to the market fast.

"Using Linux does not help the developer deliver their product faster," 
Miller said. "In fact, it can actually take longer due to platform 
development work that would not be necessary with a platform like CE."

Fred Salloum, director of marketing at Applied Data Systems, said that there 
are tradeoffs in all operating systems.

"In the case of Linux, the barriers to entry are less monetary and more 
experiential," said Salloum, who added that many of Applied Data Systems' 
Linux-oriented customers who are seeking rapid production of applications 
products are either well versed in Linux, or have access to Linux experts.

"While the Linux community is presently building this support structure, many 
baseline applications are still undergoing development. In this context, the 
existing support structure of CE is quite beneficial to those who are not so 
Linux-oriented and are trying to develop their applications quickly," Salloum 
said.

Miller also said there is already definite evidence of Microsoft's predicted 
slowdown in the Linux marketplace, with "Corel getting out of Linux, (and) VA 
Linux not meeting the expectations. "For a so-called exploding market, this 
should not happen. Sales of actual products are relatively flat.

"And the pending merger of LinuxCare with TurboLinux is nothing more than a 
consolidation to try and salvage each other's businesses."

David LaDuke, vice president of marketing at LinuxCare , disputes those 
charges, but said he was "glad to see that the deal registered on Microsoft's 
public radar. That speaks volumes."

"Both LinuxCare and TurboLinux are heading into the acquisition ... from 
positions of strength, with major customers and investors in both companies. 
We have substantial cash reserves, and this move will only accelerate our 
profitability within the year," said LaDuke.

"We firmly believe that our combined resources will help to take open-source 
software deep into the enterprise, to places where Windows isn't even on the 
short list."

But some Linux developers say t 
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